… nuclear deterrence theory . I’m sure you are all dying to be my friend now, huh?.  Plutonic, perhaps?

Sometimes one forgets their interests, and deterrence theory vanished into my archives…but has resurfaced with the large media coverage of Obama’s recent START (new) nuclear reduction agreement with Russia.  The agreement has been getting some flak for the notion that each country will still be holding on to about 1500 bad boys each.  Fair enough, but Obama is merely following a well established theory.  He’s also built upon it slightly by modifying US nuclear policy by limiting the option of nuclear weapon release only on nations that do not comply with the non-proliferations treaty.  You sign, you are safe from Betty up there.  You don’t…well, that sucks.  As we say in planning "some carrot and a big frackin’ stick”.  

Taking it to the backpack crowd is also now apparently on it’s way into US nuclear doctrine.

When completed next year, the Nuclear Posture Review will order the entire government to focus on countering nuclear terrorists — whether armed with rudimentary bombs, stolen warheads or devices surreptitiously supplied by a hostile state — as a task equal to the traditional mission of deterring a strike by major powers or emerging nuclear adversaries.

Deterrence theory has always had problems with nuclear terrorism and the idea of the bee-sting.  A bee-sting is a situation in which a nuclear armed organization obtains one or two devices and assumes that would be enough to deter a US attack.  Confidence upon acquiring such devices may increase the probability of their use.  They may even have been acquired solely for offensive purposes.  In a situation like this, a nations own deterrent may be of little use.

I have a few posts from way back about Chinese nuclear deterrence here , something about the deterrent policies of other countries here and little something about North Korea here . 

Beware, as I’m hardly a scholar.

Maintaining large numbers of nuclear weapons always seem to go hand-in-hand with uber-conservative views on the world.  I struggle with the above because it is only rational to hold on to a good chunk of devices to ensure your deterrent.  I then struggle with that statement because why would one want to hold onto 1500 warheads?  How is that sane? Besides, I’m not a neocon. If I say nukes are good…what does that say about me? That is probably why I find nuclear deterrence theory so fascinating.  That, and because I think  that a whole school of theory which has developed around an idea that assumes that  a winner will emerge in a nuclear exchange is outrageous.  Is that a reflection of the cold, hard rationalism that dominated the nuclear age?  That rationale people actually believe it?  I would say that I (a sane and somewhat rational fellow) could be thrown into that category as I’ve read some of it and admittedly find considerable amounts of it quite reasonable.  That’s freaky.  Reminds me of the famous explanation of sanity from Catch-22.

"There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one’s own safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind.  Orr was crazy and could be grounded.  All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions."

The assumption that insanity is actually the way of a rationale mind.  Like with nukes…you would be bloody crazy to use them, but that’s normal.

What about that one genuinely crazy dude with his backpack?  Strategy seems to be get him before he gets the backpack.    

Stupid theory.

The one thing that always holds me back from dreams of a nuclear free world is that it is only feasible if everyone with a nuke … even buddy with the backpack…agree to get rid of them at the same time.  

People are just too rationale.

Technorati Tags: bee-sting theory, catch-22, military, nuclear, nuclear bombs, nuclear deterrence theory, obama

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August 19th, 1944

Dear Mr. Morrison:-

Before you receive this letter you will have had a telegram informing you of the very sad loss of your son, Flying Officer W.H. Morrison.

It is with regret that I write to you this date to convey the William’s family the feelings of my entire Squadron. Late in the afternoon of August 15 ^th , a flight from this Squadron, led by myself and with your son as the pilot of one of the aircraft took off from our base in France on an armed reconnaissance over enemy territory. Our mission was very successful but shortly before we turned home, while strafing some enemy installations and vehicles at low altitude, your son’s aircraft collided with some trees, plunged to the earth and exploded. I regret to inform you that it is highly improbable that he could have survived this explosion.

William, who was an excellent pilot and particularly suited to this type of work had 49 operation trips and a total of 56 operational hours to his credit. He was considered a “main stay” in the Squadron and it will be hard to fill his place.

Your son, who was one of the “old timers” of this Squadron, was exceedingly popular with everyone. He is greatly missed by his comrades and his loss is regretted by all.

Your son’s effects have been gathered together and forwarded to the Royal Air Force Central Depository, where they will be held until better news is received, or in any event, for a period of at least six months before being forwarded to you through the Administrator of Estates, Ottawa.

May I now express the great sympathy which all of us feel with you in your great anxiety, and I should like also to assure you of how greatly we all honour the unselfish sacrifice your son has made so far from his country, in the service of the Empire.

May I express my most earnest wish to be of as much assistance as I possibly can, and request that you feel quite free to write to myself or the Squadron Adjutant should the occasion arise.

Very sincerely yours,

(J.R. Beirnes)

Squadron Leader, Commanding,

Nos. 438 (Can) Squadron.

Technorati Tags: family, RCAF, remembrance day, ww2

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I suppose military airbases eaten by encroaching urban areas is an common issue for nations with limited space. Operation of high-performance aircraft may add considerable amounts discomfort to surrounding residents and land values. They also present somewhat of a security issue, (especially for countries like China) and possibly even a safety issue (even more true for a country like China). Contrast that to a country like Canada whose major high-performance airfields are quite far removed from large urban areas (Bagotville and Cold Lake).

CFB Bagotville – The middle of nowhere

Shanghai is located within the Nanjing Military District which is considered  to be the most important military region within China, given that this is the region that would form the leadership role in any conflict with Taiwan.

There are several airbases in Shanghai, including:

• Shanghai Dachang Air Base
• Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport
• Shanghai Longhua Airfield
• Shanghai Pudong International Airport
• Shanghai Jiangwan Airfield

Shanghai’s Urban Airports – Just a quick walk to catch your flight

While Hongqiao and Pudong both have military capabilities (as does Nanjing International), their importance is too great to warrant their use as a permanent base or even as a staging area.  That leaves Jiangwan, Longhua and Dachang as active urban airbases in Shanghai.

Smack dab in the middle of Shanghai, Longhua Airport the 1930’s predecessor to Hongqiao International which opened in the 1950’s. Apparently there is not much left there and it remains largely as an emergency airfield and boneyard for historic aircraft.  It was a former Japanese airbase during the Second World War and the setting for J.G. Ballard’s Empire of the Sun .   It is just southwest of the of the 2010 Expo site.

Longhua Airport – Christian Bale sang songs here

Jiangwan airfield is quite interesting.  It is just northwest of my residence and is within view of my window.  Prior to construction of Pudong International, Jiangwan was the largest airfield in Shanghai and it is said at one point to have been a candidate for expansion as an alternative to constructing the new Pudong facility.  Commercial activity ended in 1996 and the area is presently being redeveloped into a new residential district capable of housing 80,000 people.  I haven’t been able to dig much up about this project except the following from a random Shanghai government press release from 2005.

To the north of the Wujiaochang area, the New Jiangwan Town, an area covering 9.45 square kilometres, will become a modern residential area and is designed to accommodate a population of about 80,000.
The new town’s future development will be based on the premise of ecological protection for the land, which boasts well-preserved resources.
The 10-hectare Jiangwan wetland in the area is home to nearly 40 species of birds, many rarely found in the city. It is said that more than 280 wild plant species and nearly 40 freshwater plants can be found in the wetland.
To help Jiangwan become a garden town, great efforts will be made to develop large areas of green space. Parks, forests and grasslands are expected to cover 67 hectares by 2010.

Redevelopment seems to be well on it’s way, characterized by the ever-present Chinese super-block pattern.  There project region also appears to be going for an exclusive design with the presence of a a ‘moat’ on three sides.  There is quite a problem in Shanghai (and other Mainland cities) with urban continuity…spaces don’t flow, intersect or dove-tail well with one another.

Jiangwan – We used to have airplanes.  Now all we have are these stupid streets.

That leaves Dachang as the likely candidate for Shanghai’s active military urban airbase.  And it isn’t that far from Fudan, completely surrounded by the city.

Dachang Airbase – Where the streets have no name

Dachang is home to units of the People’s Liberation Army Naval Air force.  To clear up that confusing name, the PLANA is is the naval aviation component of the the Chinese navy.  They are responsible for fleet support, anti-submarine and anti-ship warfare and air defence/patrol of China’s coastal regions.  Out of Dachang, the 16th PLANA regiment keeps people up at night using these badboys – the Xi’an JH-7 NATO codename “Flounder” or as it is known here, the “Flying Leopard” which is roughly equivalent to the retired USAF F-111 .

Dachang Airbase – Don’t call us Flounders!

Ok, enough photos of Chinese military bases…the other students in my office are beginning to get suspicious.

Technorati Tags: china, dachang, jiangwan, longhua, military, military planning, pla, shanghai, shanghai airbases, shanghai airports, urban planning

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Unbeknown to many, Canada still retains a rather large ammunition industry (and a slightly smaller small-arms manufacturing sector… Diemaco of Kitchener and their flagship C7 rifle come to mind).  General Dynamics purchased SNC-TEC , the main Canadian munitions player several years ago and now churns out all kinds of explosive gadgets ranging from 5.56mm NATO standards all the way up to 155mm howitzer shells.  Apparently they are a major supplier to the US military, and the supplier for Canadian bullet needs.

I fired up Google Earth.

Load, Assemble and Pack Plant – Le Gardeur, Quebec (Northeast of Montreal)

The plant is in the center, surrounded by agricultrual lands and buffered to the east by a major highway.  There does appear to be significant residential (that’s fancy land-use talk for houses!)  and some of it is built immediately adjacent to the site (especially the northeastern line).   You could probably hold some rather explosive parties if you lived in that neighborhood.

It’s a crappy image, and looks much better on Google Earth (I can’t seem to increase the resolution very well when I insert images directly into a post).

Energetic Materials Plant – Valleyfield (60km Southwest of the Le Gardeur facility)

Home of the propellents.  If one wants their shell to go anywhere, this is the place for them. Definitely a good site selection as it is buffered nicely by water bodies on three sides, and the surrounding built area doesn’t abut as closely to the property as they do near the Assembly plant.

It doesn’t appear that a 5 km radius is presently required.

Technorati Tags: ammunition factories, canada, land-use, military, quebec

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Obviously, it is important to remain skeptical of Wikipedia, especially ‘on-the-bounce’ entries, especially this one as most of the information is cited from equally on-the-bounce media reports. Still, I am amazed at the speed and size of the user generated content.

Technorati Tags: internet, mumbai attacks, terrorism, wikipedia

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Technorati Tags: rememberance day, ww2

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Some interesting things from this week:

The Canadian Army operates a Afghan radio station out of CFB Kingston broadcasting into the Afghanistan.

Anthropocene -from an lecture on security and environmental change.  Good lecture although I was surprised at how Robert D. Kaplan (one of my favorite essayists) was ripped to shreds by the presenter.  I also didn’t feel that my question regarding the role of the Canadian military in environmental change was adequately answered…I couldnt’ tell if I was being ridiculed or not.   Those policy study types are very obscure.

I was in Toronto last Saturday for a field trip.  First time to Canada’s premier city although I have to admit I’m not nearly as impressed by Toronto’ apparant built environment.  I just felt it to be rather mediocre given the mythical status is seems to hold in the Canadian mindset.  I specifically target the skyline and built structures, as I’m sure the social environment is as vibrant as it is reported.  I suppose it could be that I cut my ‘urban-teeth’ in Asia where the skylines and built landscapes are…well…massive.  I was good to see some of the developments in that area that are often mentioned in class – such items are very abstract unless physically experienced.  Visiting the new urbansit community of Cornell was the highlight for me as those design concepts only existed in text for me but I could finally put a space to the words, concepts and theory.  New Urbanism is rather controversial, but I liked what I saw.

Technorati Tags: afghanistan, canadian army, cornell, gis, Kingston, new urbanism, surp, toronto, urban planning

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Belgrade contains an “Old Town” which appears to be a mandatory spatial unit if one wants to be taken seriously as a European (even if you are Serbia) city. Prices are good as is the food, atmosphere and sights (heh heh heh).

There are also a few scars of the ’99 NATO air-campaign…the most notable being the bombed out Serbian Army HQ, just up from the main train station. It would appear that it is being preserved as is. The one thing that is striking about it to me is it stands as a demonstration to how incredibly accurate US munitions are. The two buildings each contain a bomb hit straight down the center which drove several floors into the building before blowing out the front and center portions. Surrounding buildings remain untouched and bear no noticable serious repair evidence. This gives rise to my belief that US forces only miss when they want to miss (using GPS JDAMs at least). The accuracy of these hits really pounds in the theory that the hit on the Chinese embassy during that same campaign was deliberate and hardly a mistake…although the actual reasoning behind the targeting remains obscure (bad maps, demonstration to Chinese forces, targeting of Serbian communication units within the embassy among others).

Lots of meat on the menu here so if you are carnivorous in nature, this is the place for you.

Technorati Tags: belgrade, bombing, bosnia, china, montenegro, NATO, sarajevo, serbia, travel, weapons

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I do a little bit of editing from time to time for a translation institute, a number of which have been construction proposals for various local development projects as well as the disaster response policy of the Nanjing’s Lukou airport (which was a rather interesting read)….

The airport disaster preparedness plan, obviously given the fact that this is the Nanjing Military District, contained a rather lengthy section detailing response measures in the event of an airstrike on airport facilities. Terrorist actions were awarded approximately two pages compared to the twelve given to airstrike damage mitigation and facility repair operations.

I of course found this interesting, but not unexpected given that Lukou Airport is in the Nanjing Military District, a region of importance in regards to Taiwan (apparently Nanjing’s Purple Mountain has a sizable bunker complex). Terrorism isn’t exactly a urgent national issue, but defense against a US retaliatory strike in the event of a cross-strait crisis is believe by many to be a very real possibility. Watch out for those sneaking Taiwanese… I have (honestly) encountered those whole truly believe Taiwan still sore about losing the Civil War and is aching to take back the motherland. Old school civil defense planning is still thriving this side of the Pacific.

However, I didn’t expect these themes to appear in suburban development plan. But they did…three pages actually, in regards to position of air-raid shelters basic design specification in order to make aesthetic integration easier. Also something about a fine being levied if bunkers are not constructed…not to clear on that one though. Sometimes Mandarin just doesn’t translate very easily into English…take this nugget for example. I think the translator did a pretty good job, as I’m pretty sure that is what the original Chinese text intended to say, but unfortunately, we just don’t communicate in that style in English.

In the east of China, a dragon is flying in the heavens and diving in the green abyss as the symbol of authority and fortune. Clear Luoma Lake has seen thousands of years of vicissitudes, which have also been witnessed by the monarchs of the past dynasties. She has been endowed with the charm of dragon by its adjacency to the heart of dragon; she is able to pass on the spirit of dragon because of keeping a dragon vein in her heart. Its vast emerald wave breeds a noble and distinguished air.

Another interesting one…

Lakeshore New Town witnesses its harmony with its history, creates its fortunes with its harmony and writes a more boundless and brilliant future with its fortunes. Let’s fix this great dream town at the coordinate origin of the development blueprint of the economic circle of the north of the Huaihe River.

Again, I think this passage integrated some local poetry or idiomatic phrase to express cooperation. Unfortuatnely, it just doens’t translate too well.

Can’t say I’m an expert though.

Technorati Tags: china, Mandarin, pla

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On the downside, Vietnam is out, as is any traveling this winter due to confusion regarding Spring Festival holidays. I was initially under the impression the school would be closing for several weeks during the massive internal migration that is Chinese New Year, yet I assumed wrong. Currently, I will be given 5 days off which coincide with the mandatory 3 day holiday. An essentially useless amount of time. I’ve considered maybe hopping to Korea, or Japan, but the prices, especially Japan are quite scary. Furthermore, my ideal trip to Japan would include a Mt. Fuji expedition, which could prove difficult during the winter. Serious bummer .

I’ve been reading a lot of Robert Kaplan lately, well, about as much as I can get for free at least. I’ve always like Kaplan since I read his pivotal Coming Anarchy piece a few years ago, but recently I think he’s become my favorite essayist (I’m going to splurge and purchase a Atlantic subscription…maybe a Walrus subscription too). I like the guy for a number of reasons. He’s well traveled, well embedded, he thinks years ahead of everyone else, he’s rational and a realist and he’s critical. But I think what separates Kaplan from others his ability to write in a very neutral, non partisan fashion. His ability to lay out, analyze and critique trends without devolving into political bashing and childish and honestly really, really pointless anti-Americanism, which I find characterizes a lot of international commentary recently. He has a gift for thinking large, thinking beyond Iraq (which he claims to be a merely a blip…I’m beginning to agree), thinking beyond the Middle East. For some examples, take the time to read a recent piece on North Korea and the global implications and likely power shifts of a regime collapse. I think it’s amazing stuff, and yet another example of how the 21st century will truly become the Asian century…while the Western world (on many levels) remains trapped in the 20th.

I feeling rather sorry for the Starbucks workers who are now (In the Christmas spirit) being forced to parade around wearing a set of ridiculous angel wings.

Today is the 69th anniversary of the Nanjing Massacre.

Technorati Tags: china, kaplan, pla

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